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Forecast
Forecast

 

The Cost Simulator provides a rough estimate on:
  • what would be the final cost, 
  • the effort to deploy
  • the ideal team size to achieve the targeted earned values on the targeted end date. 

 

The simulation is based on:

  • the salary costs to date of a single earned value unit, 
  • the fixed known cost in the future
  • the average wage of the current team.
The Cost Simulator results are shown on the chart as black line.

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Simulator
Simulator
Cost Simulator


Online information for the cost simulator.
Simulate Button

Triggers the simulation based on the target end date and target estimated earned value units.
A black line will appear on the chart to indicate the simulated final cost at the targeted date.

Simulation formula:

Panel
titleFinal Cost

Final Cost = EVSC * Targeted Earned Values + All known fixed costs (non salary) at the Targeted date

WhereEVSC is the Earned Value Salary Cost of a single Earned Value unit to date.
It is computed by taking the sum of all salary costs to date divided by the completed Earned value units to date.

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titleEffort to complete

Effort to complete = SCr / current average team wage / Hours per working days

Where SCr is the Remaining Salary Cost from the current date to the targeted date
It is computed by multiplying the  EVSC (see above) by the difference between the targeted Earned value units and the completed Earned value units to date.

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titleTeam Size

Team size = Effort to complete / Sum of working days between the current date and the targeted date


 

Note

The simulation results may differ from the projections based on the performance indexes.

This is due to the fact that the simulation is making a distinction between the salary cost and the fixed cost by contrast to the performance indexes computation.

Target End Date

Targeted end date.

Must be greater or equals to the date of the simulation.

∑ "Earned Value units" (EV)

Targeted total of earned values units at the targeted end date.

Must be greater than the completed earned values units

ClearRemoves the simulation results and resets the chart to its original settings
Results
Final CostEstimated final cost at the targeted earned values at the targeted end date.
Effort to completeEstimated total man-days to complete the targeted earned values at the targeted end date.
Team sizeEstimated team size needed to complete the targeted earned values at the targeted end date.

 

 

 


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Related pages:

Portfolio forecast