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Forecast
Forecast

 

The Cost Simulator provides a rough estimate on:
  • what would be the final cost, 
  • the effort to deploy and 
  • the ideal team size to achieve the targeted earned values on the targeted end date. 

 

The simulation is based on:

  • the salary costs to date of a single earned value unit, 
  • the fixed known cost in the future and 
  • the average wage of the current team.
The Cost Simulator results are shown on the chart as black line with a black cross at the targeted end date.

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Simulator
Simulator
Cost Simulator


Reset chart to the current state.
Clicking on the information icon will display online information on the calculationOnline information for the cost simulator.
Simulate Button

Trigger Triggers the simulation computation by selecting a based on the target end date and by entering an target estimated earned value , than press "Simulate". units.
A black line and cross point will appear on the chart to indicate the total simulated final cost compute at the targeted date.

Calculation to estimate cost at the targeted date:

  • Earned Value Cost (EVC) = the salary cost of one Earned Value
  • Salary Cost (SC) for total Targeted Earned Values (TEV) = EVC × TEV 
  • Total Cost = SC + all fixed expenses cost at the Targeted date
    • Compute the man-days: 
  • man-hours: SC / average team wage
    • man-days: man-hours

    Simulation formula:

    Panel
    titleFinal Cost

    Final Cost = EVSC * Targeted Earned Values + All known fixed costs (non salary) at the Targeted date

    WhereEVSC is the Earned Value Salary Cost of a single Earned Value unit to date.
    It is computed by taking the sum of all salary costs to date divided by the completed Earned value units to date.

    Panel
    titleEffort to complete

    Effort to complete = SCr / current average team wage / Hours per working days

    Where 

    Note that if you select a non working day as a Target End Date, the cross will be aligned with the next working day.

    SCr is the Remaining Salary Cost from the current date to the targeted date
    It is computed by multiplying the  EVSC (see above) by the difference between the targeted Earned value units and the completed Earned value units to date.

    Panel
    titleTeam Size

    Team size = Effort to complete / Sum of working days between the current date and the targeted date


     

     
    Note

    Since the current projection chart curve is based on the Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and that Cost Simulator use a different calculation method, the results may by slightly different. Ex: If you select the projected estimated last date and total earned value, the Cost Simulator results may be slightly different.

     

    The simulation results may differ from the projections based on the performance indexes.

    This is due to the fact that the simulation is making a distinction between the salary cost and the fixed cost by contrast to the performance indexes computation.

    Target End Date

    Targeted end date.

    Must be greater or equals to the date of the simulation.

    ∑ "Earned Value units" (EV)

    Targeted total of earned values units at the targeted end date.

    		 Clear

    Must be greater than the completed earned values units

    ClearRemoves the simulation results and resets the chart to its original settings
    Results
    Final CostEstimated total final cost at the targeted earned values at the targeted end date.
    Effort to completeTotal Estimated total man-days to complete the targeted earned values at the targeted end date.
    Team sizeEstimated team size needed to complete the targeted earned values at the targeted end date.

     

     

     


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    Related pages:

    Portfolio forecast